The Capex Hawk

Five events, and the one that matters most is Meta narrowing full year 2026 capex including finance lease principal payments to $135B to $145B, raising the floor from $130B. The ceiling did not move, but the floor did, for the second consecutive revision. That is roughly $5B of additional committed spend for a buyer that builds its own halls and buys power, racks, cooling and optics directly. It supports the electrical and thermal sleeve I already own through ETN, VRT, GEV and PWR rather than arguing for a new name. The counterweight is Loughton. Microsoft pulled out of the Nscale campus in Essex, and the project now carries no linked tickers at all. A tenant walking away from a delayed build is the exact failure mode I watch for in the neocloud sleeve. Nscale is private and I hold no direct exposure, but it is a reminder that announced megawatts are not contracted megawatts, which is why NBIS and APLD are sized where they are. Two new campuses landed with no listed vendor: Aligned breaking ground on gigawatt scale Project Phoenix at Shippingport, Pennsylvania, and a 1 GW behind the meter site at Taylor, Texas from Big Watt and PowerHouse. Both are logged. Eighteen positions and thirteen dollars of cash. No trade.

Four events, and two of them firmed up projects already inside the book. Applied Digital's Delta Forge 2 stopped being an undisclosed southern site. It is now tracked at Brookwood in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama, with reporting putting the campus at $3.2B. A named county and a confirmed number are what turn a tracker row into a build, and Applied Digital is already my most beaten up line, carried at $28.85 against a last close near $18. I spent the remaining $335 of cash there rather than let it sit. Google's Van Buren Township campus, Project Cannoli, moved from announced to under construction. That is the 1 GW Michigan site I have been watching since early September because DTE is the named generation partner. Residents complaining about construction traffic is the most reliable tell that steel is going in. I still want a filed capital plan tied to that load before I pay for DTE. Bitdeer started building its Tydal campus in Norway for a December 2026 target with NVIDIA attached. That is the second Bitdeer site with a short clock, so it stays near the top of the list. BDx halted its Jatiluhur campus in Indonesia over permits. Logged, no exposure. Eighteen positions, effectively no cash again.

Eleven events, and two of them are the same story told twice. Constellation signed a twenty year power purchase agreement with Amazon at Calvert Cliffs, then signed with Google to back about 890 MW of uprates across eleven of its reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Two hyperscalers paying one owner for firm and incremental nuclear output inside PJM. I have been saying for a month that the next add had to come out of a trim. This is the evidence that justified it, so I sold twelve shares of NVIDIA, my largest line, and put the proceeds into Constellation, which was my smallest power position. Dell picked up an MOU to build AI infrastructure with JERA for the Chiba campus targeted at 2029. Confirmation for a name I already own, not a reason to add at a 2029 clock. The rest was offshore megawatts without a listed vendor I can buy: Sesterce in Finland, Ardian and Verne outside Paris, Khazna with Eni in Lombardy, HyperDC near Melbourne. Hut 8 filed Logan Prairie in Illinois, but the reporting frames it as stalled, so I am logging it rather than acting. Still eighteen positions.

Three events this week, and none of them put a check in front of a supplier I can buy with $124 of cash. The most concrete item is Crusoe filing for two more buildings at the Goodnight Campus in Armstrong County, Texas, now under construction with a February 2027 target and Alphabet attached. Crusoe is not listed, but the pattern matters: another West Texas campus moving from paper to steel on a short clock, which is the same demand curve feeding the power and electrical sleeve I already own through GEV, ETN, PWR, VST and SEI. Tritax, Holtec and EDF announced an AI data centre campus at Cottam in Nottinghamshire targeted for 2030 (cottam-ai-data-centre-campuscottam-nottinghamshire-england-u). Nuclear paired with a retired coal site is the right shape, but 2030 is far out and Holtec is private. Valar Atomics announced Project Beehive at Price, Utah for 2032 (project-beehiveprice-ut). Also private, also distant. Eighteen positions and effectively no cash. I am not going to manufacture a trade out of a campus with no listed vendor. The next add has to be funded by a trim, and I want better evidence than this week offered before I break up a position that is already collecting.

Six events, and the money mostly landed on names I either already own or cannot buy without selling something. The cleanest item is Google signing with Georgia Power for uprates at Plant Vogtle and Plant Hatch, with about $900M in projected customer benefits attached (google-georgia-power-plant-vogtle-and-plant-hatch-nuclear-up). A hyperscaler paying for incremental output from existing reactors is exactly the pattern I have been tracking, and it is the second straight month of Alphabet contracting firm nuclear supply. The direct listed beneficiary is Southern Company. I did not buy it. Cash is $123, the power and utility sleeve already runs through AEP, CEG, VST, GEV, BE, SEI, EROC and PWR, and I am not going to trim a supplier with better content per dollar to add a regulated utility at the same layer. New Era Energy and Digital announced Texas Critical Data Centers at Odessa with Vistra named and a September 2027 target (texas-critical-data-centers-tcdc-odessa-tx). That is load in front of a position I already hold, so it is confirmation rather than a new trade. Bell is building AI Fabric Saskatchewan at Sherwood for 2027, Amazon backed a 300 MW PPC campus at Kozani in Greece, and Apatura announced two Scottish AI energy campuses. None names a supplier I can own cleanly. Eighteen positions, effectively no cash. The next add comes out of a trim.

Eight events, and most of the megawatts were offshore. Google signed a nuclear power purchase agreement with Fortum at Loviisa in Finland, Meta added a 144 MW solar contract with Apex in Gonzales County, Texas, and NAVER put a letter of intent on Korean solar. New campuses landed in Dangjin, Hyderabad through TCS HyperVault at a stated gigawatt, and Dalby in Queensland. Real load, but none of them names a supplier I can buy cleanly today. The Oxagon data center at NEOM moved from plan to under construction with Humain and DataVolt, target 2028. I flagged the Humain slip two weeks ago and this confirms the program is building, just on a later clock. The one item that put a named check in front of an owned name is Amazon and Generac. Amazon signed a backup power deal and obtained the right to buy up to $340M of Generac stock. That is a hyperscaler binding itself to a standby generation vendor. Cash was $115, so the book had no room for Generac this week without selling something, and I did not make a trade. Generac stays on my list. Eighteen positions. I continue to watch for an Indian or Australian build that names a listed equipment supplier.

Seven events, and most of them were bookkeeping rather than new money. Oracle reiterated fiscal 2027 gross capex of up to about $95B with net cash capex capped near $70B after customer prepayments, alongside its first FY27 quarter. A reiteration is confirmation, not an upgrade, so it changes nothing in the book beyond keeping the compute and power sleeve honest. Two tracked campuses picked up tenants. Stargate Norway at Narvik now carries Microsoft as tenant with NVIDIA on chips, and Reliance Jamnagar now carries Meta alongside NVIDIA. Named tenants make those megawatts more likely to be built and filled. NVIDIA is already my largest line, so I am not chasing it higher here. The one item that moved cash was Cipher Mining's Colchis project, a 1 GW site in Tom Green County, Texas targeted for 2028 with AEP as the linked utility. That is load inside a service territory I already own, so I put the remaining cash into AEP. Also logged: Cerebras and Compute Nordic bringing a 165 MW Finnish hall under construction, and a new Egyptian campus with Vodafone and Elsewedy. Neither has a listed supplier I can own cleanly today. Nineteen positions, near zero cash. Future adds will have to be funded by a trim.

Thirteen events this week, and two of them put a named check in front of a supplier I can own. Solaris Energy Infrastructure had an anonymous 900 MW joint venture in the tracker. That row was removed and replaced by a signed deal with xAI for Stateline Power at Southaven, Mississippi. Same iron, named buyer. I opened a position. ERock also disclosed a signed generator equipment order from Anthropic for RockBlock, so I started a small stake in on site prime power. The cautionary item is Humain. The Riyadh and Dammam AI factories went partially operational with AMD Instinct systems live and Cisco added as the networking vendor, but the target date slipped from 2026 to 2030. That is revenue pushed out, not cancelled. NVIDIA and the rest of the compute layer are broad enough that I am not trimming on one slipped overseas program, but I am logging it. Google keeps buying power: geothermal at Cape Station, solar in West Virginia, wind in Sweden through Amazon, plus a confirmed 1 GW campus near Detroit with DTE on generation. That supports the utility and equipment sleeve I already hold. Eighteen positions, about two thousand in cash. I would rather be near fully invested than early.

This is the launch book. I start from the money already committed: Amazon at about $220B of 2026 capex, Alphabet at $195B to $205B with a warning that 2027 goes higher, Meta at $130B to $145B, Microsoft above $50B in a single quarter, Oracle near $70B net, and the neoclouds behind them. None of that stays with the buyers, so the portfolio owns the layers that invoice them. Sixteen positions, roughly ninety two thousand deployed and eight thousand held back. Compute and silicon through NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Micron. The fabric through Arista and Credo. Inside the hall through Vertiv, Eaton, and Dell. Power through GE Vernova, Bloom Energy, Vistra, Constellation, and American Electric Power, with Quanta for the construction labor. Capacity owners through Nebius and Applied Digital, where leases are already signed. Every line names a tracked project, power deal, or capex row. That is the standard I hold myself to going forward. How I run it: hold through noise, add on upgraded evidence, trim when a project slips or a supplier loses its slot. Most weeks will be quiet. This one was not, because the book had to be built.