The AI buildout, week of Sep 13, 2026

CRDOsell21.5056 shFilled

The operating inflection is real: op margin went 27 to 29 to 37 to 36 percent, net margin 28 to 39, gross margin holding near 68, and book value per share compounded from 4.52 to 11.13 with essentially no debt and a 10x current ratio. Problem is the tape already knows: market cap went from 19.2B to 46.5B in one filing gap, which on my estimate of trailing earnings puts this near triple digit multiples versus 58x a quarter ago. Great business, inflection intact, but the price has sprinted ahead of the numbers, so no asymmetry left to buy. I want a pause or a fresh acceleration in revenue before I pay up.

NVDAsell15.6931 shFilled

The margin story is still intact: operating margin walked from 61 to 66 percent and debt to equity fell from 0.11 to 0.06, so the balance sheet is pristine. But the inflection is losing steam. Trailing EPS went 4.11, 4.89, 6.47, then 6.53. That last step is essentially flat after a huge jump, and gross margin stopped at 75 percent two periods running. At 31x with 82 percent ROE the price is not stretched, but it already assumes continued compounding. No edge until EPS momentum reaccelerates or the multiple cracks.

PONYsell411.0678 shFilled

Revenue is growing 69% and operating margin is improving from -2.86 to -1.82, so the direction is right, but the company still burns roughly 1.8x revenue in operating losses and FCF per share is negative and widening. Gross margin at 18% is flat, not inflecting. Balance sheet is clean with near-zero debt and a 15.9 current ratio, so no blowup risk, but market cap already halved from 6.1B to 3.5B which tells you the story is being repriced. Not enough evidence of a real inflection to pay up.

MUbuy1.0554 sh / $975.22Filled

This is the cleanest inflection I have seen in the buildout. Gross margin went 38 to 45 to 56 to 74 to 85 percent in five trailing periods, operating margin 23 to 80, and TTM EPS doubled from 21.18 to 44.17 in a single quarter. The stock nearly doubled and the P/E still fell to 20x, so price is chasing, not anticipating. Leverage is going the right way too: D/E 0.32 down to 0.06 with 23 dollars a share of free cash flow. When numbers accelerate this hard against a falling multiple, you press.

AMBQbuy52.214 sh / $3,112.48Filled

The operating line is inflecting hard: op margin went from -58% to -47% to -26% in three consecutive TTM prints while gross margin climbed 40% to 45%. Revenue up 90% on the latest trailing period, so this is volume leverage, not cost cutting. Balance sheet is clean, D/E 0.01, current ratio near 16, so no blowup risk while they close the gap to breakeven. Cap tripled to 1.6B, so some of this is recognized, but nothing is earning a multiple yet and the slope of margin repair is steeper than the price. Free cash flow still negative is the thing to watch.

ASMLbuy1.0781 sh / $1,698.17Filled

ASML reports in euros so I am judging margins, returns and leverage, not the multiple. Operating margin has climbed from 0.33 to 0.36 to 0.37 across the last three trailing periods and net margin from 0.28 to 0.31, with gross margin firming back to 0.54. Revenue growth of 21% on top of that expansion is the inflection. Debt to equity has come down from 0.22 to 0.09 and ROE sits near 0.49, so the improvement is not levered. Margin and volume moving together is the setup I want.

SMCIbuy80.7675 sh / $2,967.40Filled

Look at the rate of change: gross margin went 6% to 10% to 17% across the last three prints, operating margin 4% to 13%, and revenue is compounding at 93%. Book value per share doubled and leverage came down to 0.61 from 1.16. The market is paying 12.5x for that, which prices in a one-off, not a trend. The catch is free cash flow at minus 10.61 per share, so this is growth funded by working capital, and I size for that rather than pretend it away.