Neocloud stocks to watch: CRWV, NBIS, IREN, APLD

Three of the four neocloud stocks people search for most, CoreWeave, Nebius and Applied Digital, fell by roughly a quarter in the thirty days to September 15, 2026; the fourth, IREN, slipped a few percent. Over the same weeks the buildout tracker logged new tenants and new capacity at their campuses, and the June 30 13F filings, public since mid-August, show three concentrated managers opening or adding positions. This post reads the four through that data, not the tape.

The fact the price pages do not show is who each company actually depends on. A neocloud is a landlord with one to three tenants, and in this group the tenants overlap: Microsoft anchors three of the four, and CoreWeave is itself the anchor tenant of a third of the layer. The table has the score, the tenants and the tracked capacity for each. The sections after it have the read, and the thing that would change it.

The four at a glance

Scores are rendered from the live leaderboard at each nightly build. Capacity is the sum of the campuses the buildout tracker attributes to each operator, in megawatts, at any stage from announced to operational.

Company	Score	Tier	What it rents	Anchor tenants	Tracked capacity	2026 capex guidance
CoreWeave (CRWV)	97	Pure Play	GPU clusters on its own and leased sites	Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta	550 MW owned, plus leased capacity at three other tracked operators	$35B to $39B
Nebius Group (NBIS)	97	Pure Play	GPU cloud, US and Finland	Microsoft, Meta	3,130 MW across five campuses	$20B to $25B
IREN (IREN)	65	Strategic	GPU cloud on renewable-powered former mining sites	Microsoft	2,750 MW across two Texas campuses	Not guided in dollars
Applied Digital (APLD)	95	Pure Play	Purpose-built AI data centers, leased whole	CoreWeave	1,540 MW across five campuses	Not guided in dollars

CoreWeave (CRWV): the tenant of the layer

The data. CoreWeave reported a revenue backlog of $104 billion at June 30, 2026 against quarterly revenue of $2.6 billion, raised 2026 capex guidance to $35 billion to $39 billion, and guided Q3 capex to between $11.5 billion and $13.5 billion, which would be its largest quarter yet. The Meta agreement runs to about $21 billion through 2032. NVIDIA has agreed to buy up to $6.3 billion of any capacity that goes unsold through 2032.

What the tracker adds. CoreWeave appears in the tenant column of three other tracked operators: Applied Digital's Polaris Forge 1 in North Dakota, Core Scientific's Denton campus, and Galaxy Digital's Helios campus in Texas. Its own builds, Lancaster in Pennsylvania and Kenilworth in New Jersey, are 550 megawatts between them. Most of CoreWeave's physical footprint is on someone else's balance sheet, which is why it can guide to capex that large: a share of it is servers going into buildings it does not own.

Who holds it. From the June 30 filings on the investor pages: Brad Gerstner's Altimeter increased its position to about 6 percent of the book, Gavin Baker's Atreides increased, David Tepper's Appaloosa opened a position, Cathie Wood's ARK increased, and NVIDIA's own 13F shows CoreWeave at around 7 percent of its equity holdings. George Soros trimmed.

What would change the read. A renegotiation of any of the three anchor contracts, or a refinancing of the GPU-backed debt at worse terms. The neocloud explainer covers how that debt is structured. The Q3 report, due in mid-November, carries the next capex number.

Nebius Group (NBIS): the most capacity on the way

The data. Nebius reaffirmed 2026 capex of $20 billion to $25 billion in August and raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts. The Microsoft agreement is worth $17.4 billion over five years, rising to $19.4 billion if Microsoft takes the optional capacity, and Meta is on the customer book too.

What the tracker adds. Five tracked Nebius campuses total 3,130 megawatts, the most of any company in this group: Independence, Missouri at 1,200 megawatts under construction, a 1,200 megawatt campus in Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania announced for late 2027, Vineland in New Jersey at 350 megawatts with Microsoft as tenant, and two Finnish sites. On August 12 it chose Bloom Energy fuel cells for 328 megawatts of on-site power in New Jersey, which sidesteps the grid queue that slows most of these builds.

Who holds it. Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine opened a Nebius position in the June quarter worth about 7 percent of its book, the largest new neocloud position by weight among the 24 tracked managers. George Soros opened one, Gavin Baker added, and NVIDIA holds a stake. Both of Supercycle's trading agents, the Capex Hawk and the Druck, hold it as well; their trade logs are public.

What would change the read. Whether the 5 gigawatt contracted-power target is met by year end, and at what cost. Nebius has the largest gap in this group between capacity announced and capacity running, so the tracker's status column, announced to under construction to operational, is the thing to watch quarter by quarter.

IREN: the miner with a Microsoft contract

The data. IREN signed Microsoft to about $9.7 billion over five years in November 2025. Its score of 65 is the lowest of the four because bitcoin mining is still a large share of revenue; the score rises as contracted AI capacity replaces it.

What the tracker adds. Two Texas campuses. Sweetwater is planned at 2 gigawatts and energized its first phase in May 2026. Childress, the Horizon campus, is 750 megawatts, delivered its first 50 megawatts to Microsoft in August 2026, and IREN targets 480 megawatts of AI cloud capacity by the end of 2026. The two things a neocloud needs most, cheap power and permitted land, IREN already had from mining. What it did not have was the customer, and now it has one.

Who holds it. None of the 24 tracked 13F filers held IREN at June 30, 2026. It is in the NCLD ETF's top five. That is the least institutional ownership in this group, on the tracker's evidence.

What would change the read. The AI share of revenue crossing half, which would move the score into the Core tier, or the opposite: a delay at Sweetwater, which is the bulk of the tracked capacity and still mostly unbuilt.

Applied Digital (APLD): one tenant, five campuses

The data. Applied Digital describes its backlog as take-or-pay in its annual report, and the named tenant across it is CoreWeave. It delivered the second building at Polaris Forge 1 in July 2026 and signed a 210 megawatt lease at Delta Forge 2 in June.

What the tracker adds. Five campuses, 1,540 megawatts: Polaris Forge 1 (400 megawatts, partially operational, CoreWeave as tenant), Polaris Forge 2 (200) and 3 (300) in North Dakota, and Delta Forge 1 (430, Louisiana) and 2 (210, site undisclosed) in the South. Applied Digital is the clearest case in the layer of a landlord to one tenant. Its fortunes are CoreWeave's fortunes with a lease in between.

Who holds it. Chase Coleman's Tiger Global and Dan Loeb's Third Point each opened small positions in the June quarter. The Capex Hawk holds it.

What would change the read. A second named tenant at any of the five campuses, which would cut the single-counterparty risk in half. Or the reverse, a change to the CoreWeave leases.

The rest of the layer

Supercycle tracks 21 stocks in the Neoclouds category. Beyond the four above, the ones with the most tracked capacity or the highest scores:

• TeraWulf (WULF), score 85: Lake Mariner in New York with Google as backstop and tenant, the Anthropic lease at the Justified Data Campus in Kentucky, and a 1 gigawatt Kentucky site announced for 2028. Stephen Mandel increased his position in June.
• Core Scientific (CORZ), score 80: two 1.5 gigawatt expansions under construction at Muskogee, Oklahoma and Pecos, Texas, and CoreWeave at Denton. CoreWeave's roughly $9 billion offer for the company was voted down in October 2025.
• Cipher Mining (CIFR), score 55: Amazon as tenant at Black Pearl and Stingray, Google backstopping the Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake, and two further Texas sites of about a gigawatt each announced.
• Hut 8 (HUT), score 72: Beacon Point in Texas fully leased with NVIDIA as tenant, and River Bend in Louisiana with Google as backstop.
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY), score 40: the Helios campus in Texas, 800 megawatts, CoreWeave as tenant.
• Fermi (FRMI), score 92: Project Matador in Amarillo, planned at 11 gigawatts, the largest single site on the tracker and the furthest from built.

What to watch

Three dates and one column. CoreWeave and Nebius report Q3 in mid-November, with new capex and contracted-power figures. IREN's year-end target of 480 megawatts of AI capacity is testable in its next quarterly update. And the tracker's status column, where a campus moves from announced to under construction to operational, is the number that turns a contract into revenue. Every row links to its source, so the move can be checked the day it happens.